15/04/2026 02:36 AST
China's economic growth likely picked up in the first three months of the year, according to analysts surveyed by AFP, boosted by exports now impacted by the Middle East war, while domestic demand remains weak. Leaders in the world's second-largest economy have struggled since the pandemic to rely on overseas shipments to support gross domestic product as a long-running property market crisis forces consumers to crimp on spending.
That has also come amid a trade standoff with the United States that played a role in last year's growth reading coming in at its lowest level in decades.
Still, analysts expected the economy to have expanded 4.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, up from 4.5 percent in the final three months of 2025, according to the median forecast of an AFP survey before official results are published Thursday. That is at the top end of the 4.5-5.0 percent target set by officials last month, though that figure is the lowest since 1991, excepting 2020 during the pandemic.
Sarah Tan of Moody's Analytics told AFP the headline economic growth in the range targeted by Beijing "masks underlying imbalances, with external demand driving growth as domestic momentum remains weak". China's trade surplus last year reached an eyewatering $1.2 trillion, the largest on record.
The boom in shipments offers a key lifeline for Beijing, while persistent woes in the vast domestic real estate market weigh on investment and consumer moods. Dan Wang, a director on the Eurasia Group's China team, told AFP that "global dependence on Chinese exports increased (since the war) as China's full supply chain and energy security are less affected than other industrial nations". Skyrocketing oil prices have also boosted demand overseas for Chinese electric vehicles, with official data last week showing shipments of those and hybrids rose 140 percent year-on-year in March.
"China's exports of green technology and products got a lift" last quarter, Gene Ma, Head of China Research at the Institute of International Finance, told AFP. While figures Tuesday pointed to a slowdown in shipments last month, the surge in exports held up in the first quarter-despite the Iran war, which "seems to be doing little to dent exports", wrote Zichun Huang of Capital Economics in a report on Friday.
Critical to withstanding pressure from the Middle East war is a long-term push by Beijing to ensure energy security, which experts say is now bearing fruit. "China is unlikely to face significant direct impacts from the Middle East conflict," Sarah Tan of Moody's Analytics told AFP. Meanwhile, China's exports grew at a slower pace last month after starting the year with a surge, official data showed Tuesday, as the global economy reels from war in the Middle East. The world's second-largest economy produced a record-breaking trade surplus last year at $1.2 trillion.
Booming overseas shipments appeared set to continue this year after jumping by more than a fifth in January and February combined. However, China's exports grew just 2.5 percent on-year in March, according to data published Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).
The slowdown was more pronounced than expected, with a Bloomberg survey of economists forecasting 8.6 percent growth. Exports to the United States also plunged last month, hit by blistering tariffs launched by President Donald Trump. Shipments to the United States tumbled 26.5 percent on-year to $29.4 billion in March, the customs data showed. In a more positive sign, imports soared 27.8 percent, according to the figures. That was higher than a forecast of 14 percent growth by Bloomberg.
AFP
Please wait...
